Investors in cryptocurrency are always looking for the next big opportunity. 

One such opportunity that has captured the attention of many is the potential for billion-dollar protocols to give away free tokens through airdrops. 

Airdrops have become a popular way for users to earn thousands of dollars worth of new assets, and crypto market participants are betting big money on which protocol will be next.

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• Crypto investors are betting big on the next billion-dollar protocol to launch an airdrop, with $400,000 wagered on Polymarket’s “Airdrops by June 30?” market.

• Layer 2s Blast and Base, restaking tool Eigenlayer, multichain network LayerZero, and social finance application Friend.Tech are among the most anticipated potential airdrop candidates.

• Wall Street firm Susquehanna International Group is launching an events contracts trading desk, signaling growing mainstream interest in prediction markets beyond traditional financial assets.

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Crypto Enthusiasts Betting Big on the Next Billion-Dollar Airdrop

The “Airdrops by June 30?” market on Polymarket, a crypto prediction platform, has already attracted $400,000 worth of bets. 

While this may seem small compared to the platform’s U.S. presidential election market, which has garnered over $105 million, it is still substantial for the sector.

Currently, 23 different networks, platforms, and layer 2s are in the running for the next big airdrop. 

Each has been active for at least two months and has seen meaningful user activity. 

Four of them—Solana NFT marketplace Tensor, real estate exchange platform Parcl, derivatives platform Drift, and restaking platform Swell—have already confirmed an airdrop, leading to gains of up to 80% for speculators who placed their bets in February.

Now, all eyes are on other hyped platforms such as layer 2s Blast and Base, restaking tool Eigenlayer, multichain network LayerZero, and social finance application Friend.Tech. 

Nearly $100,000 has been bet on whether LayerZero will drop a token by the end of April, with “Yes” shares trading at just two cents, indicating a mere 2% chance of it happening.

Eigenlayer has captured the biggest mindshare, with over $56,000 being bet on whether the platform will release a token before June 30. 

The market predicts a 66% probability of this happening. 

A separate market, ending on April 30, has attracted even more money—$63,000—but with just a 17% chance of an airdrop.

For those who don’t want to bet on when an airdrop will occur, there’s also the option to bet on how much the token will be worth. 

A smaller market is betting on Eigenlayer’s expected valuation after its token is released, with scenarios ranging from no token launch to a $40 billion market cap.

The popularity of these prediction markets is easy to understand. 

Airdrops represent free money, and if investors know which protocols are likely to do airdrops within a certain timeframe, it can inform their decisions about where to invest their money.

There are markets where people can predict events, such as the temperature of March being the hottest on record. 

If the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2024 shows an increase of 1.37°C or more, a $212,000 bet will be resolved on May 1.

 As of Monday, speculators have placed odds of a 72% chance. 

Even large companies like Susquehanna International Group are getting involved in these markets. 

They are launching a trading desk that focuses on “events contracts” to attract investors who want to bet on alternatives to traditional financial assets. 

The U.S.-regulated platform Kalshi allows bets of up to $7 million. 

These prediction markets are growing and are expected to become more exciting.