Polymarket traders bet Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a big change from regular voting predictions. They’ve bet a huge $165 million, suggesting they think he might win by a lot if they’re right.
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- Polymarket thinks there’s a 56% chance Donald Trump will win the 2024 election. In their guess, he’s ahead of Joe Biden by 22 points, which is different from what regular polls say.
- Trump and Biden will likely have a debate, even though they don’t agree on how it should happen at first. Most people betting on it think it will happen (77% chance).
- Coinbase expects to see more people trading cryptocurrency, with the total amount of money traded going up to $174 billion this quarter. This shows more regular people are interested in buying and selling digital money, even as big companies get more involved.
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Will Trump Trounce Biden? Polymarket Traders Are Betting on It
Polymarket says Trump has a 56% chance of becoming president again. That’s a big lead—22 points more than Joe Biden. This is very different from other polls, like Nate Silver’s on FiveThirtyEight, which only show Trump slightly ahead by one point.
Some say Polymarket’s users might like Trump more because they’re into cryptocurrency. However, other places like PredictIt, which uses U.S. dollars and has more people involved, also think Trump is in the lead, though not by as much (50-45).
In prediction markets, people make guesses based on what they think will happen, not just what they want. This encourages them to do a lot of research and make smart choices. Prediction markets might be better at showing what people really think compared to normal voting polls.
Ryan Selkis, who started Messari, a company that studies cryptocurrencies, says Trump’s team uses data from Polymarket and other places, not just regular polls. This shows that more people in politics are starting to doubt whether regular polls are the best way to know voters’ thoughts.
In prediction markets, the likelihood of something happening is shown by how much money people bet on it. For example, if a share costs 40 cents, there’s a 40% chance of it happening. Trump’s big lead on Polymarket might mean that more people think he’s likely to win, as has happened in elections in Taiwan and Indonesia before.
Looking ahead, the difference between Polymarket’s guesses and regular polls makes us wonder: will things really happen as they say, or is it just because Trump’s fans online really like him?
Debate Is Likely; Another Conviction Isn’t
The big 2024 election is coming up, and everyone’s talking about the debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Trump is excited to debate Biden and show off his skills. Most people think the debates will happen as planned (77% chance), even though they have some arguments about how they should be done.
Meanwhile, Trump’s team is dealing with some legal issues. There’s a small chance (14%) that he could get in trouble before the election. This might change how people think about him when they vote.
Are Retail Traders Reaping Crypto’s Riches?
Before Coinbase reported its earnings on June 14, people watched the money traded on this cryptocurrency exchange. Experts think the trading volume could reach $174 billion, up from $154 billion last time. This shows how important Coinbase is for people buying and selling digital money.
Big financial companies like BlackRock and Fidelity are now investing in cryptocurrencies. This change in who’s investing shows that cryptocurrencies are becoming more accepted as a real investment method. However, some argue that this goes against the original idea of decentralized cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin’s value has gone up a lot since Coinbase’s last report. This shows that regular people are still interested in buying cryptocurrencies, which tells us about the wider economy and investors’ thoughts.
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